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23
Management report
Austrian economic trends
With 2013 growth of around 0.4 per cent, Austria’s economy
performed almost as well as Germany’s. After stagnation during
the first half of the year, the economic situation improved steadily
during the second half. This once again puts Austria’s economy
well ahead of the average for the eurozone as a whole, which
registered 0.4 per cent contraction during 2013. In 2014, Austrian
growth is forecast to come in at around 1.5 per cent, with stronger
domestic demand playing an increasing role alongside the
improvement in the world economy.
Thanks to the global economic recovery, the latest order book
figures reveal a clear improvement in export performance, and
growth in imports can also be expected during 2014. Falling
imports in 2013 due to the weakness of the Austrian economy did,
however, lead to a notable improvement in the Austrian balance
of payments, with the surplus rising from 1.6 per cent of GDP in
2012 to 3 per cent in 2013, a trend which is expected to continue
in 2014.
Since spring 2012, companies have been reluctant to invest.
However, in the wake of increasing optimism about the economy, a
strong revival in investment activity is now expected imminently.
Contributory factors here will be a pent-up need for capital
expenditure on replacements as well as anticipated inventory
replenishment and an acceleration in residential-building invest-
ments. Meanwhile, after the fall in private consumption during
2013, continuing rises in employment and increasing real incomes
will lead to a return to growing domestic consumption figures
during the coming years.
The labour market situation remains ambivalent. Despite positive
developments in employment, the unemployment rate is up. This is
due to the growing size of the workforce, and this in turn is chiefly
due to increasing numbers of foreign workers in the wake of the
Austrian labour market’s liberalisation. According to Eurostat,
unemployment rose from 4.4 per cent in 2012 to 4.9 per cent in
2013. Further slight rises to around the 5 per cent mark are fore-
cast for 2014 and 2015.
Inflation as measured on the Austrian HVPI (
Harmonisierter
Verbraucherpreisindex
– ‘harmonised consumer price index’) fell
significantly during 2013 and now stands at 2.1 per cent. With
energy and food prices continuing to fall, the inflation rate is set to
decrease further to under 2 per cent.
For the Tyrolean economy, the current situation is somewhat more
difficult. Here, economic growth during 2013 was slightly below the
Austrian average of about 0.4 per cent. We mentioned above that a
major driver of Austria’s economic recovery is the export market,
and because of this the benefit derived by Tyrol during 2014 will
be below the average for the country as a whole. Nevertheless, a
nominal export volume of 11.8 billion euros is forecast for 2014,
which represents a rise of between 4 and 5 per cent. All in all,
though, Tyrolean economic growth is expected at best to match
the Austrian average, while more probably falling somewhat short.
However, it is encouraging that the underlying sentiment among
the Tyrolean business community has improved somewhat since
last year, and overall it could be said that a mood of cautious
optimism has broken out. When surveyed during summer 2013,
some 30 per cent of Tyrol’s largest companies rated the economic
situation as good, a figure which had risen to 36 per cent by the
end of the year. Further encouragement may be drawn from the
fact that 55 per cent of our leading tourism enterprises are satisfied
with their bookings. Optimism in the service sector appears to be
somewhat stronger than in manufacturing, though seasonal effects
do play a role here.
Tyrol’s unemployment rate is also somewhat above the Austrian
average at 6.4 per cent. However, positive factors to note regarding
future trends are the fact that Tyrol has been less heavily affected
than Austria’s eastern states by the opening of the labour market
to people from Romania and Bulgaria, as well as the fact that
employment levels remain high, particularly in the services sector.